Toni Ervianto. (istimewa)
Toni Ervianto. (istimewa)

2021 Germany's General Election Prediction

MENITRIAU.COM

Germany will open vote ballot in September 26,2021 to decide Chancellor Angela Merkel successor.  Merkel will step down after 16 years ruledMerkel yang akan  and she had won four times general election, she has decreased conservative alliances supports.

Likes becoming political event in others countries, Germany's general election has had several poll survey. Germany's Office News  (ARD) survey in April, 21, 2021, results 44% Germany people see that Markus Söder having competency being chancellor , meanwhile Armin Laschet has reached 15 percent. Laschet is 60 years old politician and he has good political relation with Angela Merkel. Laschet had chosen CDU chairman since early 2021 replacing German defence minister  Annegret Kramp-Karrembauer.
Laschet as Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is predicted gets 77,5 percent from internally CDU as German chancellor successor nominee., and Armin Laschet had defeated  Markus Söder as chancellor candidates from CDU, because he gets only 22.5% internally CDU supports.

According to Bild Am Sanntag survey in April 25, 2021, Green party has 28% supports, CDU/CSU coalition has 27%,  Social Democrat Olaf Scholz 13%, AfD 10%, FDP 9%, and Die Linke 7%.

In August 29, 2021, Bild am Sonntag newspaper has reporter its survey to know society political supports melaporkan before Germany's general election. Reports has shown that aporan Social Democratic Party (SPD) a left moderate party has defeated ruling party with  24 percent rather than Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a conservative wings party has 21 percent votes. 

Related to chancellor candidates, Bild am Sonntag newspaper has predicted SPD chancellor candidates, Finance Ministry Olaf Scholz will get 31 percent votes, CDU chairman and chancellor candidates will get 10 percent and green party chancellor candidates Annlena Baerbock will get 14 percent votes. 
Annalena Baerbock is former trampoline champions who has never rules at government bureaucracy but she has high electability at several polls because she has political promised to invest in education sehubungan janji , digital technologi and green.

Germany's vice chancellor, Olaf Scholz has criticized oposition  chancellor candidates from Green Party, Annalena Baerbock. Scholz has judged Baerbock does not have political experience.  

Olaf Scholz said even though some polls have shown that Green Party has more political support than  CDU/CSU alliances, but Germany needs type of leader who has government knowledge and experience so can rule Germany still being strong and determine country in Europe. 

According to Scholz' statement if left moderate Social Democratic Party (SPD) win in 2021 Germany generasi elections, they might build political coalition with Christian Democratic Union (CDU) a right-middle Christian's party and Christian Democratic Conservative (CSU), rather than Green Party. 

If all of polls related to Germany's general election have true at their methodology ika hasil and its does not part of interest groups political maneuvre through survey company and newspapers ideology in Germany which has published its, so we can predict that Green Party will go tightly political rivalry with CDU/CSU coalition, and SPD party will stay at third place, even though they has generally succeed to accompany Merkel's goverment era with fabulous and amazing targets in Europe. 

The writer has predicted that 2021 Germany's general election being winning by Green Party and it can be made political surprise in Germany.  The strongest rival for Annalena has come from Armin Laschet, chancellor candidates from CDU and CSU coalitions.

Green party win in Germany's general elections has made political modern tradition that women politician  will rule the government. Annalena Baerbock can predict to boost Merkel's achievement, even though she must make political coalition with several political party in Germany to maintain political domestically condusive during her government era.  ***

*) Toni Ervianto, The writer is an international issues observer. He had earned post graduate degree at University of Indonesia (UI). Previously he had earned political degree at Jember State University (Unej).



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